The answer is yes and no.

Measuring the relative effectiveness of online education is difficult due to the variability in subject matter, class size, and what is meant by the term online education.  Moreover, as has been observed by Richard DeMillo (Center for 21^st Century Universities) and others, forms and methods of online education are rapidly evolving.  The methods studied in the most current reports are outdated by the time they are completed.

My reading of all this indicates that the future of higher education will be a balance of face-to-face and virtual.  Fairly quickly those courses – any 500-person courses would be likely examples – that are best suited to a digital format will move there.  Some courses – voice studios would be good examples – may never have an acceptable digital equivalent.  Between these two extremes lie the vast range of courses and pedagogies that are open to active innovation.

The challenge for traditional institutions will be to find their balance point quickly enough to avoid fatal compromises to the core values on which each is based.

Of the many studies of the general question of the quality of online education, I find the following to be recent, relevant and well documented.

U.S. Department of Education, Office of Planning, Evaluation, and Policy Development, Evaluation of Evidence-Based Practices in Online Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Review of Online Learning Studies, Washington, D.C., 2010.

Going the Distance:  Online Education in the United States 2011, I. Elaine Allen & Jeff Seaman, Babson Survey Research Group, 2011

Interactive Learning Online at Public Universities:  Evidence from Randomized Trials, William G. Bowen, Matthew M. Chingos, Kelly A. Lack & Thomas I. Nygren, Ithaka S+R, May 22, 2012

All three studies cover a range of modalities and I find the USDOE report to be the most comprehensive.  The Ithaka S+R addresses a specific mode that is commonly known as blended, and the research design includes the random assignment of students to different modes.  The Babson report results from a survey of educators, and thus measures attitudes about educational outcomes, rather than attempting to measure the outcomes directly, as is the case in the other two.

Based one these and related studies, it is reasonable to say:

1. By 2010 online education was capable of being at least equal to traditional large classroom classes, and,
2. By 2010 blended forms, utilizing both face-to-face instruction with rich online usage, was capable of being better than either traditional or online forms.
3. The improvement of the quality of online and blended forms, particularly in active learning and class interaction, is not static.  Research methods are being used to accurately measure outcomes, supporting rapid improvements.
4. Innovation in non-traditional formats is continuing, more frequently with the participation of traditional institutions.

For those planning the future of higher education, I suggest that these trends form a pattern of changing pedagogy and finances for higher education that cannot be ignored.

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