Some seasoned observers of the current challenges to higher education believe that there is nothing new. Colleges and universities have gone through multiple periods of change and transformation since their emergence at the end of the Middle Ages about 700 years ago. Each time, institutions have adapted and survived.

Competition makes this time different. In the United States not only are institutions faced with declining financial prospects, but also with questions of legitimacy and cost-effectiveness. They have survived such situations in the past, but the only competition then was less education, not more.

It would be simplistic to see competition only in the form of for-profit universities.  Competitors are everywhere and they take many forms – non-traditional textbook providers, digital service aggregators, a myriad of start-ups, and even traditional institutions mobilizing to provide MOOC’s and other on-line offerings.

These occurrences should not be seen as fads.  We should see them as merely the latest forms of a process of digital transformation that has been underway for less then two decades.  The imperfections of current forms can be seen as areas for almost certain improvement.  From verification of student identity to modularization of course structure, improvements are inexorable.

While it is appropriate to believe in the resilience of traditional institutions, it is not wise to expect them to survive in their current form. We have just begun to see the merger of institutions and rising economic pressures leading to the transformation of business models. As we go forward it will become clear that the legacy costs of bricks and mortar campuses will either contribute to the value of an institution or to its economic failure.

Whether institutions adapt to competition and still continue to support their existing infrastructure or abandon them like so many grand English estates will be the campus planning challenge of the next two decades.  Not adapting to competition is not a choice.

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